| Criminal disingenuity from Peace Now's Lara Friedman Posted: 27 Feb 2012 07:05 PM PST As I've mentioned, this week there was a conference in Doha that was meant to try to ensure that Israel and Jews would never have any say in how Jerusalem is administered. The keynote speaker was Mahmoud Abbas, who gave a speech that was sheer incitement against Israel and Jews as he effectively denied any Jewish connection to the city. The Emir of Qatar urged the UN to take away any vestiges of Judaism from the holy city. Its final statement is a classic example of anti-semitism, promising to go to the UN destroy anything Israel might have done in the city since 1967, including imaginary excavations that they accuse Israel of digging under the Al Aqsa Mosque. One attendee among the haters was Lara Friedman, Director of Policy and Government Relations for Americans for Peace Now. In an astoundingly disingenuous piece for the Forward, she claims ignorance of the sheer hatred that Arabs have for Jews and the Jewish claim to Jerusalem. You have to read it and ask yourself - is it possible someone in her position is this clueless? When I was invited to this conference, I took this as a sign that the Arab League wanted to capture the full complexity of the issues related to Jerusalem, including openly pro-Israel, pro-peace voices. However, it seems that virtually every conversation I am having here involves me, to a greater or lesser degree, having to defend the two-state solution and having to assert and defend the Jewish stake in Jerusalem. The fact that I am forced to do so points to what is clearly, from my point of view, a major flaw in this event. That flaw is the absence of more voices like mine, which represent the mainstream of American Jewish opinion and Israeli opinion. People who care about Israel and are committed to the two-state solution, including in Jerusalem. This solution is the only thing that will guarantee peace, security, and a future for either Israelis or Palestinians.
I don't know who else was invited to this conference and couldn't (or chose not to) attend, but it seems to me that by not having more pro-two-state solution, Jewish voices here, the Arab League is doing a disservice to the cause it is ostensibly concerned with — the health and status of Jerusalem — and missing an opportunity. The Arab world, and activists around the globe concerned with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, do themselves no favors when they listen to voices that tell them only a piece of the story that is comfortable to their ears (just as Israel and the American Jewish community do themselves no favors when they choose not to hear unpleasant truths).
Speakers at Sunday's opening session, including Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, one after another laid out laundry lists of criticisms of Israel — many of them regrettably marked with exaggerations. All also spoke a great deal about Muslim and Christian attachments to Jerusalem and the importance of defending the holy sites and communities associated with both religions. However, only one speaker, Michel Sabbah, formerly the Latin Patriarch in Jerusalem, mentioned any Jewish connection to the city. This is a serious problem. If President Abbas cannot acknowledge Jewish claims in Jerusalem, even as he asserts Palestinian claims (a problem Yasser Arafat suffered from), he should not be surprised if it is more difficult for Israelis and Jews, wherever they are, to believe that he can be trusted in a peace agreement that leaves Jerusalem sites precious to Jews under Palestinian control.
If representatives of the organization that sponsored the Arab Peace Initiative cannot bring themselves to acknowledge the legitimacy of Jewish equities in Jerusalem, they should know that they discredit their own professed interest in peace. Their framing of the future of Jerusalem as a zero-sum game only makes it more likely that Israel will continue asserting its current power over East Jerusalem to hinder the vision of two states living in peace with a Jerusalem as a shared capital.
All throughout the day, it was unfortunately the same story. Participants talked about Jerusalem as if Jewish history did not exist or was a fraud — as if all Jewish claims in the city were just a tactic to dispossess Palestinians.
...I regret that the conference so far has not taken the issues related to Jerusalem more seriously, and I am proud that I am here representing a truly pro-peace — and thus be definition pro-Israel — perspective. Much of the discourse here thus far has been personally objectionable and even painful to me, but I believe my presence here is important for the cause of peace. Did Friedman come to this conference honestly thinking that the Arab League and Mahmoud Abbas are interested in peace? Where has she been the past few months as Abbas has been doing everything he could to avoid even talking with Israel? Where was she when he gave a speech to the UN last September, saying the exact same things about Jerusalem that he said in Doha? She is shocked that the Arabs at the conference weren't like the liberal Jews she hangs out with, or the Arabs who have been conditioned to tell her what she wants to hear when she speaks to them individually, with ambiguity designed to fool wishful thinking Westerners into believing they are interested in co-existence with Israel. Not at all. When they speak to a predominantly Arab audience, things sound much different. What a surprise it must have been to Friedman, who apparently woudl never deign to spend five minutes at the MEMRI or Palestinian Media Watch sites. They are too distastefully right wing, you see. Yet even after she sees the hate and hears the lies herself, first hand, she fails to get it. To her, the problem isn't that Mahmoud Abbas is a liar inciting Arabs to rise up against Jews living in their holy city. No, that is probably just rhetoric. To her, the problem is that such hate speech makes Israelis uncomfortable with freely giving the Jewish sites to him. To Friedman, the crime isn't hate and lies and anti-semitism (yes, Lara, denying the Temple existed is anti-semitism.) No, to her the crime is anything that slows Jews down from giving their holy places to a Holocaust denier who praises a man who wanted to exterminate all the Jews of Palestine. Lara thinks that Jews must do exactly that - for "peace" - and therefore Abbas' hate and lies are an unnecessary obstacle delaying Jews from happily abandoning Jerusalem's holy spots. And on and on it goes. After hearing speech after speech, she still believes that the Arab League is interested in peace with Israel. Well, they are. Their concept of peace is where Israel disappears by political means, legal means, demographic means or military means, whichever is most effective at any point in history. But when they say "peace" she grabs on to that word for dear life, closing her eyes and clicking her ruby slippers three times and repeating "They really want peace! They really want peace!" Is it wishful thinking overwhelming her ability to believe what she heard? Who cares? The fact that she did not experience a "eureka!" moment when listening to mainstream Arabs from "moderate" countries deny any Jewish connection to Jerusalem - people so willing to lie in order to defame Israel and Jews - shows that Lara Friedman is just as bad as they are, no matter how many anguished articles she writes for the Forward. Let her try to write an article defending the Jewish claim to Jerusalem in Al Akhbar, or Al Jazeera. Then she can claim - still disingenuously, but at least somewhat credibly - that she really wants to work for peace. Otherwise, she is just as much of the problem as those she feels so uncomfortable about. (And if she does do that, let her read the vitriolic talkbacks that such a column would spawn.) Friedman will get over her Doha discomfort in a couple of weeks and go back to penning her articles that put all the blame for no peace on Israel. That is her comfort zone. Her wishful thinking will win out. Because even this article shows that she cannot and will not learn the lessons from Doha that all but slapped her in the face. 
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| The beginning of the deadly 1936 riots (US State Dept) Posted: 27 Feb 2012 04:30 PM PST We sometimes see Arab propagandists mention that the 1936 Arab riots that started in April were "non-violent." I once went through Palestine Post archives to show the violence done by Arabs in the first days of the Arab strike, but there were some incidents that happened beforehand. Here is a narrative of what happened then, from the US consul's perspective. Of the incidents mentioned here, only one was against Arabs by Jews. From the United States Department of State / Foreign relations of the United States diplomatic papers, 1936. The Near East and Africa: As reported by telegram on April 18, the first factor contributing to the occurrence of the disturbances was the recrudescence of political high-way robbery by bands of Arabs. Although Sheikh Izz-ed-Din [al Qassam] had been captured and executed by the police, his spirit was reinvoked to inspire the Arabs to begin again their annoying practices on the highways. There was, however, a difference in the modus operandi of these bands as compared with those which operated under Sheikh Izz-ed-Din. The latter worked merely to annoy the Government, whereas the former operate on what can only be described as anti-Jewish lines. On one occasion busses were stopped on the Tulkarm—Nablus Road and all the passengers were forced to alight. The only three Jews in the busses were then segregated from their fellow pas-sengers and placed in the cab of a truck at the head of the stopped column of cars. The door of the cab was closed and the Jews were fired upon at point-blank range. Of the three, one was killed out-right, one died later of wounds, and the third was severely wounded. This incident was followed the next night by a revenge killing of two Arabs by Jews in a small hut on the Petah Tikva,—Ranaana Road. It is reported by the police in this respect that at 10 p.m. on April 16 a car stopped before the hut and one of its occupants knocked on the door. In response to the knock the door was opened and two persons believed by the police to be Jews entered and, finding two Arabs within, shot them both dead on sight. One was shot six times with a Browning automatic and the other five with a Parabellum. The car with its occupants then disappeared.
When these facts became known the following morning tension between Arabs and Jews reached a crucial point. The situation was rendered acute later in the morning when the Jew who had been murdered by the "terrorists" two days before was buried as a martyr in the cemetery on the outskirts of Tel Aviv. The cortege following the body worked itself into a frenzy of righteous indignation and became disorderly. The efforts of the Jewish police of Tel Aviv to restore order and control the course of the procession were unavailing.
A clash ensued and the Jewish police were routed. Reserves of British police were immediately called and likewise were attacked. By this time the excitement had spread to the occupants of nearby houses who joined the fray by throwing flower pots, cement building blocks and even iron bedsteads upon the heads of the police below. At one moment it seemed as though the British police would likewise be routed and troops were ordered to stand by from the encampment at Sarafand. Fortunately, however, order was at length restored, but not until after the police had been forced to fire into the crowd and many casualties had occurred both among the police and the rioters. The authorities were particularly apprehensive during the course of these disturbances because at Ramleh, no more than ten miles away, crowds of excited Arabs were celebrating the local feast of Nebi Saleh, and had word of the riots in Tel Aviv reached them a most serious situation would almost certainly have developed.
The following day, Saturday, passed without incident, but in an atmosphere of extreme tension. The police and the military authorities prepared for serious trouble.
On Sunday their fears were justified. A large crowd of Arabs gathered in the morning before the offices of the District Commissioner in Jaffa to protest against the murder of the two Arabs killed on the 16th, and as they were milling about in the square and working themselves into a condition of frenzy two Jews appeared and were immediately set upon. The crowd of Arabs then went berserk and pursued every Jew they saw. Fortunately, not many were at hand. The crowd then turned its attention to the main Jaffa—Jerusalem highway, stopping all cars and inspecting them for Jewish passengers. Many cars were wrecked and many casualties took place, among them an official of the Public Works Department, the son of the honorary Swedish Consul, the son of a well-known British contractor and a member of the Royal Air Force. When order was finally restored at 3:30 in the afternoon total casualties amounted to
7 Jews killed ;
2 Arabs killed;
15 Arabs wounded;
39 Jews wounded.
Monday morning dawned on a Palestine prepared for disturbances of the most serious sort. All shops were closed and traffic was at a minimum on the roads. At about 9 a. m. the police received word of fresh outbreaks in Jaffa and, as a result traffic ceased on the Jerusalem—Jaffa road and was convoyed on the Jerusalem—Nazareth road. The disturbances remained localized in the no-man's-land between Jaffa and Tel Aviv, where a platoon of the Cameron Highlanders had been stationed the day before, but a few minor incidents of stoning automobiles occurred in the Northern District near Jenin. To combat this development the Air Officer Commanding despatched detachments of armored cars to Nablus, Tulkarm and Jenin and likewise ordered detachments of troops to support the police at Tulkarm in case of a clash between the Arabs of that district and the Jews of the neighboring colonies. Casualties in Jaffa on April 20 were as follows : 5 Jews killed and 26 wounded; 2 Arabs killed and 32 wounded; on that day also 2 Jews died of injuries received on the previous day. Outside of the fracas in Jaffa the only important items to note on April 20 are two incidents which occurred on the Jerusalem–Nazareth road: a convoy of cars carrying visiting French officers back to Syria was stoned near Jenin and windshields and windows were broken ; the French Consul General abandoned his car near Nablus because of a demonstration then in progress and returned to Jerusalem by train. Also on that day Consuls Lynch and Scott journeyed to Tel Aviv and back to Jerusalem after learning that no American individuals or property had been involved in the disturbances, and Consul Brent returned from Haifa—all without incident.
On April 21 the situation was reported as being "easier". Nineteen persons were wounded, 14 Arabs and 5 Jews, in "isolated assaults"; a Jewish lumber yard and other buildings were fired in Jaffa; traffic was resumed under convoy on the Jerusalem–Jaffa road ; a crowd of Arabs bent on invading an outlying quarter of Tel Aviv were repulsed by the police; a general strike, which in effect has been only partial, was begun by Arab shopkeepers and still continues on April 25. This strike, which is supposed to have been inspired by that of the Damascene merchants some weeks ago and which is scheduled to last "until Arab demands are met", is a most half-hearted affair unsupported by the Nashashibi element. (As far as can be determined the Arab "demands" are the traditional ones : cessation of Jewish immigration and termination of land sales to Jews.) Foreign Relations of the United States is a great resource, but before World War II they are only available as non-searchable PDFs. I converted the one here to text using an online OCR program. 
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| Lebanon forcing students to take Hezbollah 101 Posted: 27 Feb 2012 01:31 PM PST From Ya Libnan: Hezbollah and its allies have "taken advantage" of their role in the government in order to force public schools and the Lebanese University to dedicate a one-hour session for teaching the history of Resistance, Lebanese University (LU) students affiliated with the Lebanese Forces party said on Monday.
The students were referring to a decision that has been taken by Education Minister Hassan Diab.
In a written statement the students asked: "What Resistance are you talking about? Are you referring to the one which plunged Lebanon into futile wars and achieved illusory victories? Or is it the Resistance which violated Lebanon's sovereignty through establishing [its own private] telecommunication networks on public properties?"
The term "Resistance" in Lebanon refers mainly to the Iranaian and Syrian backed Hezbollah militant group. Hezbollah declared victory at the end of the 2006 war with Israel and tried to bring down the government in 2008 over the issue of its private telecommunication network.
The students blasted the government for allowing Hezbollah to take advantage of its dominant role in the cabinet to achieve its own goals. When will they cut out the middleman and just let Ayatollah Khamenei write the course materials for every class? 
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| Iran celebrates Oscar win over Israeli film Posted: 27 Feb 2012 12:15 PM PST From Payvand: An Iranian filmmaker has won the country's first Oscar, taking the prize for the best foreign-language film at the Academy Awards in Los Angeles, and Tehran has celebrated by touting it as a victory over its archenemy.
Director Asghar Farhad's "A Separation," already the recipient of a number of high-profile international awards, was awarded an Oscar on February 26 over films from Belgium, Poland, Canada, and Israel.
But it was the win over the Israeli entry, "Footnote," that has garnered most of the attention.
"This is the beginning of the collapse of the influence of the Zionist lobby over American society," read a statement issued by Javad Shamaghdari, the head of Iran's Cinematic Agency. Describing the win as an "unusual reaction to the Zionist lobby," Shamaghdari said the Oscar marked the "beginning of the collapse" of Israeli influence.
("The American judgment bowed before the Iranian culture and Oscar voters showed a different reaction to the Zionist lobby, which is escalating war," he added.)
Iranian state television, meanwhile, reported that the Iranian movie had "left behind" a film from the "Zionist regime."
With the victory, according to a report by Iran's Student News Agency (ISNA), an "Iranian flag has been planted atop America." So does this mean that "Zionists" don't own Hollywood, as Iran claims? I mean, how easy would it have been for those "Zionists" to ensure that Footnote won the award? It seems that there is no way to reconcile the two facts that "Zionists" run Hollywood and that they gave an award to their enemy. Unless....the reason that they gave the award to Iran was because they didn't want to make it too obvious that they supported Israel! But....they could have voted for a different film to make the same point! And they voted for the hated Iranians, whom everyone knows they can't stand and would never reward! Yet.... there is another question. Iran ensures that no Iranian competes against an Israeli in any sporting event. How could they let "A Separation" compete with a film from the evil Zionist entity? Shouldn't the director be jailed when he comes back to his homeland? Luckily, anti-semites don't care much about consistency in their opinions. It is a self-defense mechanism, because otherwise their small brains would explode. (By the way, "A Separation" lost in the best original screenplay category to "Midnight in Paris," written by one of those unmentionable Jews "Zionists" that control Hollywood. I think there is a secret message there somewhere that only Iranians can decipher.) 
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| Israel looking at connecting its power grid to Europe Posted: 27 Feb 2012 11:00 AM PST As Israel-haters pretend that they can hurt the Jewish state by threatening tiny stores in the Pacific Northwest and insecure second-tier performing artists, Israel is making billion-dollar deals with Europe aimed at maintaining energy independence. From Engineering News-Record: Israeli Energy and Water Minister Uzi Landau has instructed the Israel Electric Corp. to advance a project that would connect the country to the European power grid by way of Cyprus and Greece. Officials of the state-owned power company are set to sign an agreement soon with DEI-Quantum Energy—an entity owned by Greece's largest utility, a Cypriot bank and private investors—for a feasibiilty study of the first 270-kilometer segment to connect with the Cyprus power network.
If the proposed EuroAsia Interconnector project is fully realized, it would be, at 998 km, one of the world's longest underwater power cables. According to the Israeli utility, it would have a capacity of up to 2000 MW.
The proposed line would extend from the Israeli city of Haifa on the Mediterranean coast to the southeastern coast of Cyprus, then to the northwestern coast of Crete and on to the Peloponnese peninsula of Greece.
Landau said the project would give Israel a much-needed power-source backup and connect the country's stand-alone network with Europe, significantly boosting its future energy security. "The project could have a tremendous positive impact on the Israeli economy," he said.
The overall cost of the project is estimated at 1.5 billion euros, with the Israel-Cyprus segment put at 500 million euros. Israel Electric officials said the investment would pay for itself within four years.
Other project components to be managed by DEI-Quantum Energy include construction of powerplants in Cyprus, Crete and the Peloponnese peninsula, with the cost to be covered by the firm, its partners and various Israeli investors.
"Considering Israel's and Cyprus' natural-gas discoveries, Greece's energy shortage and the massive demand for energy within Europe, for Cyprus, the sky is the limit," said Nasos Ktorides, DEI-Quantum Energy chairman. He said Israel is expected to exploit its natural-gas discoveries much sooner than Cyprus and that it would be prudent for Cyprus to find "decisive and productive ways to export the excess energy to an already established electricity grid."
The feasibility study is expected to be completed in 2012. DEI-Quantum said the project could be started in 2013 and completed within 36 months.
The proposed power cable and related projects were among "energy cooperation" issues dicussed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last month during a one-day visit to Cyprus—the first such trip by any prime minister of the country. (h/t Rachelle) 
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| The intra-Hamas split gets more obvious Posted: 27 Feb 2012 09:45 AM PST On Friday, reports emerged of Hamas officially severing ties with the Assad regime: Hamas has thrown its political clout behind an uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the Palestinian Islamist group's longtime patron and host, a shift that cracks a formidable alliance and further widens the Middle East's sectarian divide.
Ismail Haniyeh, prime minister of Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip, told worshipers at Cairo's Al Azhar mosque during Friday prayers that the political party and militia was supporting the uprising against Mr. Assad, calling the revolutionaries "heroic," according to the Associated Press. What reporters didn't notice was how unusual it was that Ismail Haniyeh, and not Khaled Meshal, was making this statement. After all, Meshal is Hamas' political leader. Haniyeh is supposed to only be the leader of Hamas in Gaza. Yet Haniyeh has gone on three trips outside Gaza in the last couple of months, acting each time more and more like he is truly the leader of Hamas and that Meshal is a figurehead, not the other way around. Meshal is the one whose headquarters, at least nominally, was in Syria, even though he has avoided his Damascus office for months now. Haniyeh's populist speech in Cairo, with the Muslim Brotherhood, seems to have been calculated to pull the rug out from under Meshal's careful balancing act between his Damascus sponsors and the Arab world that supports the opposition. Yesterday, Meshal's deputy confirmed the split: The Hamas leadership has left its longtime base in Syria because of the regime's crackdown on opponents there, the No. 2 in the Islamic militant movement said in an interview Sunday at his new home on the outskirts of Cairo.
Still, Hamas officials long played down reports of the movement's exodus from Syria.
Abu Marzouk noted Sunday that Hamas still has offices in Syria, but acknowledged that "practically, we are no longer in Syria because we couldn't practice our duties there."
Abu Marzouk has moved to a cottage on the outskirts of Cairo where he uses the second floor as an office. Previously, under the Israeli and Egyptian embargo on the Gaza Strip, only those with Gaza residency could live there, and many top Hamas leaders lived outside of the small, coastal enclave.
He said Mashaal and his aides have moved to Doha. Another Hamas official said this week that Mashaal twice turned down recent requests to meet with Assad and eventually decided to leave Syria.
"Our position on Syria is that we are not with the regime in its security solution, and we respect the will of the people," Abu Marouk said. This doesn't sound like the fire-and-brimstone opposition to Assad that Haniyeh called for. This sounds more like an attempt by the political wing of Hamas to avoid the appearance of a split and to salvage Meshal's leadership while not quite burning bridges with Damascus. This weekend, Ismail Haniyeh has catapulted himself into becoming Hamas' recognized leader even in the international political arena. The "Doha Declaration" between Abbas and Meshal is all but meaningless in the face of Haniyeh's (and Mahmoud Zahar's) opposition and Meshal's increasing irrelevance. A similar analysis was done by Ehud Yaari in The Times of Israel with lots of good detail: Hamas's no longer undisputed leader Khaled Mashaal is now in deep trouble. ...
Abandoning their secure base in Damascus without being able to obtain an alternative safe haven, the "External Leadership" of Hamas is fast losing ground in its ongoing rivalry with the "Internal Leadership" centered in the Gaza Strip. Mashaal is no longer in sole control of the movement's purse strings, since contributions from Tehran were reduced. He no longer enjoys the recognition of Syria, Iran and Hezbollah in his supremacy within Hamas.
...And so, earlier this month, Mashaal resorted to a sudden dramatic exercise: On February 6 in Doha he signed — under the auspices (and financial incentives) of the Emir of Qatar — an agreement with the Palestinian Authority's Mahmoud Abbas to form a "temporary" technocrats' Unity Government, with Abu Mazen himself as prime minister.They also agreed to postpone general elections without fixing a specific date.
This was a bombshell! Mashaal has agreed, at least implicitly, to make a major concession: to dismantle Hamas' s own government in Gaza, which has ruled the Strip for the last five years, and to allow the PA administration (and security services?) to resume control over the different ministries. He seemed to be sacrificing Hamas's autonomous enclave in the hope that, at an unspecified date, Hamas might win in the ballot boxes.
Furthermore, Mashaal made a few statements recommending "popular struggle" — which is the code for unarmed confrontation — against Israel. This was perceived as meaning he was willing to suspend use of bullets and rockets, contrary to Hamas's traditional devotion to the concept of "armed resistance." He also expressed acceptance of a Palestinian state within 1967 boundaries, although he stressed that there would be no peace or recognition of The Zionist Entity and the goal will remain the destruction of Israel. To many in Hamas, Mashaal sounded as if he was diverting to a dangerous course in an effort to adjust to the Arab Spring, handing their Fatah rivals an easy victory.
A chorus of protests by the Gaza leaders — not to mention by the West Bankers — immediately erupted. Mashaal was accused of acting behind the back of the Hamas institutions and deviating from the adopted policies. Dr. Mahmoud al-Zahar, an old foe of Mashaal's, took the lead in public, but many joined him during the closed doors sessions of Hamas meetings in Khartoum and then in Cairo.The plan to appoint Abbas as prime minister was described as "unconstitutional."
Ismail Haniyeh, the prime minister of the Hamas government in Gaza, embarked on a tour of several Arab countries avoiding any hint of support for the Doha Agreement. Then he ignored warnings by the Gulf states and the Moslem Brotherhood and paid a widely publicized visit to Iran, kissing and hugging Supreme Leader Khamenei, and asking for direct financial assistance to Gaza. On his return to Cairo, incidentally, the crowd at al-Azhar mosque Friday prayer cheered him by shouting "Down with Iran, Down with Hezbullah!"…..
And so, right now, the ever-negotiated reconciliation process between Hamas and Fatah is again bogged down. Abbas insists on the implementation of the deal cut with Mashaal. The majority of Hamas leaders demand "amendments" to the Doha Agreement. Maintaining exclusive security control over the Strip is definitely a Hamas condition now, as is a demand for veto power over the appointment of all ministers.
The two parties keep conferring in Cairo but so far cannot agree on a visit of Abbas in Gaza. The internal debate within Hamas has been brought to the surface.
The movement has lost the pretense of cohesion. The battle over command and direction is on. (h/t EBoZ) 
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| Abbas makes another threat. Yawn. Posted: 27 Feb 2012 08:30 AM PST From Ma'an: The Palestinian Authority is planning to reconsider its security, political and economic agreements with Israel in the coming days, a PLO official said on Sunday.
After exploratory talks with Israel ended without agreement, the PLO Executive Committee has agreed to take a number of measures to jolt the current stalemate.
In an interview with Egyptian channel CBC on Friday, President Mahmoud Abbas said the PA was planning a "major decision" in no more than 10 days, in response to the talks' failure. Now, where have we heard this before? A few months ago, I noted: Palestinian Arab media are buzzing about a dark hint that Mahmoud Abbas gave in an interview with an Egyptian newspaper that he will reveal something "important and dangerous" that is happening soon.
There is some speculation that when the UN Security Council bid for statehood is defeated, and because of the inability of Fatah to successfully negotiate any elections with Hamas, together with Abbas' repeated promises not to run in any new elections for president of the PA, that Abbas may dissolve the PA altogether.
In fact, Saeb Erekat hinted at this yesterday, telling Palestine Radio "Either there is power to the movement of Palestinians from occupation to independence, or Netanyahu has to assume [Israel's] responsibilities seriously from the river to the sea." Before that, in 2010: A senior Palestinian official warned the Palestinians may break their agreements with Israel if it continues with its current policies.
The senior adviser to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas warned Palestinians cannot "remain committed to agreements that were signed with Israel forever." It used to be that Abbas would threaten to resign, which he did repeatedly, when things didn't go his way. He's still there. This is the PLO version of politics: try to get a frightened West to put pressure on Israel by pushing empty threats. If the PLO would decide to abrogate existing agreements, then the autonomy they have achieved would be gone. The situation that Abbas characterized in 2009 as "in the West Bank we have a good reality...the people are living a normal life" - would disappear. Now, we have seen only in recent weeks that Hamas is willing to gamble with the well-being of the people under their control in order to make a political move - in that case, to pressure Egypt to provide power to Gaza - but Hamas' hold on power is unassailable. Abbas and his Fatah movement are not going to throw away their power - especially their security forces. Abbas is good at threats. That's about all he is good at. He sure isn't interested in building a real state and making hard decisions. (h/t CHA) 
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| Tempest in a Wikipot: Did Israel destroy Iran's nuclear program? Posted: 27 Feb 2012 07:15 AM PST From The Times of Israel, also reported elsewhere: Israeli agents collaborating with Kurdish operatives destroyed Iran's nuclear infrastructure last year, according to an unnamed Israeli intelligence source cited in communiques between intelligence analysts uncovered by Wikileaks on Monday. The leaked emails also contain assessments that Europeans want a military strike against Tehran to divert attention from the euro crisis and that Henry Kissinger believes a panicking Israel will indeed attack the Islamic regime. On November 7, 2011, a Stratfor analyst reported on a conversation he had with an Israeli intelligence agent. The analyst, Benjamin Preisler, said that the source — whose reliability the company was "still testing" — was asked what he thought of reports that Israel was planning a military strike on Iran.
"I think this is a diversion," the source said, according to Preisler's email. "The Israelis already destroyed all the Iranian nuclear infrastructure on the ground weeks ago. The current 'let's bomb Iran' campaign was ordered by the EU leaders to divert the public attention from their at home financial problems."
Replying to Preisler's email, several senior analysts at Stratfor expressed doubt about that scenario.
"Would anyone actually accept that this could let the Europeans forget about the Euro crisis, something they have been experiencing every day for over a year?!" wrote Sydney-based Chris Farnham.
Two days later, Farnham sent another email, saying that the Israeli agent's information "seems like quite a stretch however it has been put out there for some reason or another and is now playing in to what we are seeing."
According to Farnham, the Israeli agent was asked to clarify what he meant when he said that Israel destroyed the Iranian nuclear infrastructure.
The agent answered: "Israeli commandos in collaboration with Kurd forces destroyed few underground facilities mainly used for the Iranian defense and nuclear research projects."
Farnham further writes that if a direct military confrontation erupts between Jerusalem and Tehran, an Israeli attack on Iran would last "only 48 hours but will be so destructive that Iran will be unable to retaliate or recover and the government will fall. It is hard to believe that Hamas or Hezbollah will try to get involved in this conflict."
He added, "Even if the Israelis have the capabilities and are ready to attack by air, sea and land, there is no need to attack the nuclear program at this point after the commandos destroyed a significant part of it." This is a non-story. When you actually look at the email threads that have been leaked, you see that this is just a bunch of analysts, of varying skill levels, bouncing scenarios and ideas off each other. And to be honest, they don't sound all that well-informed. In this case, one person heard what can only be described as an unsubstantiated rumor from an untested Israeli source. The others are skeptical but they consider what it might mean if it is true. To give an informal email thread like this credence is exactly as stupid as to trust a blogger who claims to have inside information from his own unnamed and unknown Israeli security source. Stratfor does some good analysis, but there is a reason why it is good - because their experts sift through the garbage to find things that are hidden. But whether you are a private intelligence enterprise, a reporter or a blogger, before you publicize things you build a case from multiple sources. A scenario like this one requires some corroboration. And none was given, which is why the story was ever not released by Stratfor. Put it this way: Imagine how much more money Stratfor could have made had this panned out and they were the first to publicize it! They would have clients willing to pay millions for such great insider information. But Stratfor apparently looked at this single factoid, tossed it around, and properly dropped it as not reliable. Which is something that the news media should make clear as well. This entire episode is, to put it mildly, stupid. An unsourced, unverified claim is no more credible when it is leaked from an email chain from Stratfor or when it is reported on Facebook. It should be treated with an equal amount of skepticism. 
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| Morning links Posted: 27 Feb 2012 06:00 AM PST |
| Hamas issues arrest warrant to rights activist Posted: 27 Feb 2012 03:11 AM PST His crime? Correctly blaming the fuel crisis on Hamas! The director of a Gaza-based human rights organization said Sunday that he received an arrest warrant from the Hamas government, after he criticized the state-run energy authority.
Al-Dameer director Khalil Abu Shamala, who is also a member of the public freedoms committee, said the arrest warrant included accusations from the Hamas-run energy authority that he had blamed them for the current energy crisis in Gaza.
It also said that he had created a rift amongst citizens, as well as threatening the security of the authority. Here is the major reason why the media has been reluctant to point out Hamas' hypocrisy in refusing to accept fuel coming through Kerem Shalom, something that was routine until a year ago. They don't want Hamas to attack their employees. Hey, Hamas intimidation works. That's why they do it. 
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