| 2009 State Dept cable: "Syrian officials, at every level, lie." Posted: 14 Aug 2011 06:34 PM PDT A fascinating 2009 memo released by Wikileaks as President Obama was actively trying to re-engage Syria shows that the White House has not been listening to State Department advice on how Syria acts diplomatically. Excerpts: As the U.S. continues its re-engagement with Syria, it may help us achieve our goals if we understand how SARG officials pursue diplomatic goals. Syrian President Bashar al-Asad is neither as shrewd nor as long-winded as his father but he, too, prefers to engage diplomatically on a level of abstraction that seems designed to frustrate any direct challenge to Syria's behavior and, by extension, his judgment. Bashar's vanity represents another Achilles heel: the degree to which USG visitors add to his consequence to some degree affects the prospects for a successful meeting. The SARG foreign policy apparatus suffers from apparent dysfunctionality and weaknesses in terms of depth and resources but the SARG punches above its weight because of the talents of key individuals. SARG officials generally have clear, if tactical, guidance from Bashar and they are sufficiently professional to translate those instructions into recognizable diplomatic practice. But in a diplomatic world that is generally oiled by courtesy and euphemism, the Syrians don't hesitate to be nasty in order to achieve their objectives. The behaviors they employ as diplomatic "force-multipliers" are the hallmarks of a Syrian diplomatic style that is at best abrasive and, at its worst, brutal.
SARG officials are sticklers for diplomatic protocol, although they are not experts on the international conventions from which it is derived. The SARG places a high value on protocolary forms that ensure respectful treatment of state officials (despite bilateral
differences) because such forms guarantee that the President and his representatives are shown proper courtesies by a world that is often at odds with Syria. (This focus on protocol underlies the continuing Syrian unhappiness over the absence of a U.S. ambassador.) Protocol conventions also reinforce the notion of equal relations between sovereign states and the SARG insists that communications between it and foreign embassies comply with traditional diplomatic practice.
In dealing with the U.S., the Syrians see every encounter as a transaction. The level and composition of the Syrian side of any meeting is carefully calculated in terms of protocol and the political message being sent; a lunch invitation must be interpreted as more than just the Arab compulsion to hospitality ) who hosts the lunch is as important as who attends the meetings. When it comes to content, the Syrians seek to gain the highest value deliverable for the lowest price or no price at all. During the re-engagement process, the SARG has attempted to extract high profile USG gestures in exchange for relief of operational constraints on the Embassy. The SARG has been uncharacteristically forward-leaning in allowing discussions on a New Embassy Compound site to develop as far as they have; actual closure on a land deal, owever, is probably contingent on U.S. delivery of a SARG desirable, e.g., the announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be sent to Damascus.
The President's self-image plays a disproportionate role in policy formulation and diplomatic activity. Meetings, visits, trips abroad that enhance his respectability and prestige are pursued; encounters that may involve negotiations or difficult debate are declined or delegated to subordinates. The President responds with anger if he finds himself challenged by visitors, but not until after the meeting. He seems to avoid direct confrontation.
SARG officials at every level lie. They persist in a lie even in the face of evidence to the contrary. They are not embarrassed to be caught in a lie. While lower level officials often lie to avoid potential punitive action from their own government, senior level officials generally lie when they deem a topic too "dangerous" to discuss (e.g., Al-Kibar, IAEA) or when they have not yet determined whether or how to respond (FFN, Hezbollah arms supplies, etc).
Every Syrian diplomatic relationship contains an element of friction. The Syrians are not troubled by discord; they seek an upper hand in any relationship by relying on foreign diplomats' instinctive desire to resolve problems. By withholding a solution, the SARG seeks to control the pace and temperature of the relationship. SARG officials artificially restrict their availability and can engage in harsh verbal attacks to intimidate and rattle foreign diplomats. SARG officials delight in disparaging their interlocutors behind their backs for allowing themselves to be cowed.
When Syrian officials don't like a point that has been made to them, they frequently resort to an awkward changes in subject to deflect perceived criticism. Syrian officials seem to think they've scored a verbal hit by employing a facile non sequitur, usually in the form of a counter-accusation. When the SARG's human rights record is raised with Muallim, for example, he often raises Israel's December-January Gaza operation r, more recently, asks if the U.S. will accept the 1300 Al Qaeda sympathizers in Syrian jails. The non sequitur is intended to stop
discussion of the unwelcome topic while subtly intimidating the interlocutor with the threat of raising a subject that is putatively embarrassing to him or her. Again, the State Department seems to have a good handle on how to deal with Syria, and the President has refused to listen to the advice of their experts. It seems that the administration's bizarre insistence on upgrading relations by sending an ambassador with Syria played into Assad's hands perfectly. Moreover, the White House's refusal so far to recall him also plays exactly into Syrian diplomatic wishes. 
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| 2008 State Dept. memo lists four of Assad's moneymen - but US has not blacklisted them Posted: 14 Aug 2011 01:51 PM PDT The US and the EU have put some specific people and institutions fro Syria under sanctions. The specific list of people that President Obama has sanctioned, as of his Executive Order of April 28, 2011, includes three names: 1. Mahir AL-ASAD [Brigade Commander in the Syrian Army's Fourth Armored Division, born 1968]
2. Ali MAMLUK [director of the Syrian General Intelligence Directorate, born 1947]
3. Atif NAJIB [former head of the Syrian Political Security Directorate for Dar'a Province] In addition, the US maintains a list of some 20 individuals who have been sanctioned over the years in Syria/ [T]he President of the United States has imposed financial sanctions on Syrian individuals and entities for involvement in proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; association with al Qaida, the Taliban or Osama bin Laden; or destabilizing activities in Iraq and Lebanon; or benefiting from public corruption. The U.S. Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) administers these sanctions against individuals and entities that operate in Syria by blocking assets and prohibiting U.S. persons to have financial transactions with them.
There are currently 20 individuals in Syria that have been sanctioned and are listed on the OFAC Excluded Parties List (EPL).
However, a 2008 Wikileaks cable released last week gives a very specific list of four prominent individuals who, in the State Department's' estimation, are the people most responsible for Syria's corruption and for propping up the regime: As Washington policy makers consider ways to pressure the regime, one possibility would be to go after President Asad's money-men. Four individuals Asad uses to make and move money are Zuhair Sahloul, Nabil Kuzbari, Asad's uncle Mohammad Makhlouf, and his father-in-law, Fawas Akhras. Each is important to Asad and each plays a somewhat different role in facilitating regime graft.
Sahloul (AKA Abu Shafic) is the most important black-market money changer in Syria. When the Syrian Pound (SYP) devalued precipitously in the fall of 2005, the SARG gave Sahloul an office in the Central Bank and access to its hard currency reserves so he could intervene in the black market to stabilize the currency....
In addition to being the father of Syria's poster-boy for corruption, Rami Makhlouf, Mohammad Makhlouf has long served as a financial advisor to the Asad family. If Rami is the face of corruption, Mohammad is the brain. When Asad agreed to open the telecom sector to cellphone providers, it was Mohammad that some credit with conceptualizing the deal whereby Rami took over the first provider, SyriaTel, (long Rami's biggest cash-cow), and the second license (originally to SpaceTel, then Areeba 94, and now MTN) went to the first-lady's family...
Because of the Makhlouf's excesses and Asad's inherited propensity to limit the power and influence of his family members, Nabil Kuzbari has played an increasingly important role for the first-family. Known locally as "the Paper King," Kuzbari's base of operations has long been in Vienna. In the last two years, however, he has developed an increasingly collaborative relationship with Rami and Mohammed Makhlouf. Last year he served as Rami's frontman in establishing his holding company, Sham Holding, which brought together 70 of Syria's most-important business families to fund a number of Rami's most ambitious entrepreneurial projects. In addition to lobbying European politicians to engage the Asad regime, Kuzbari reportedly uses his contacts in the Austrian business and banking circles to move regime assets abroad.
In addition to being Asad's father-in-law, Fawas Akhras has been increasingly active in business here in Syria. Akhras is the force behind the Syrian-British Business Council and recently put together a visit to London by a large group of Syrian businessmen. ...Contacts in the banking
sector have commented on the large amount of funds that have begun to move recently through his accounts. A long-time resident of London, he is suspected of being another avenue used by Asad to stash funds abroad.
Post has long advocated moving against individuals, like those listed above, who are intregal to allowing the regime to profit from its corruption. Taking action against those linked to corruption is a win-win proposition: not only does it bring pressure on the regime where it hurts most - its pocketbook, but such a move would also be popular with the average Syrian who is the most common victim of the regime's avarice. These four people, known for at least 3 years, are not on any list of those being sanctioned by the US. It's now been four months since the Syrian revolt started. Why are these individuals not on any list of those being sanctioned? 
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| New Israeli Mini-UAV for urban warfare Posted: 14 Aug 2011 11:45 AM PDT From Media Line: Israel has revealed a new mini-rotary drone designed for stealth maneuvering in urban areas while relaying real-time intelligence to ground forces.
Called the GHOST, the 4 kilogram (9 pound) twin rotary UAV is equipped with an automatic vertical takeoff & landing system; and can loiter for up to 30 minutes, according to its developers at the Israel Aerospace Industries.
Experts say the new UAV, which looks surprisingly similar to the Chinhook transport helicopter, is one of a kind and answers a growing demand for vertical takeoff and landing drones.
The developers plan to unveil the GHOST to the public next week at the Unmanned Systems North America exhibition in Washington D.C., sponsored by the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International (AUVSI). The system was designed with twin rotary electrical engines so it can be silent and support day and night special operation missions, IAI said.
"The innovative concepts used to develop GHOST highlight IAI's goal to do its utmost to support the ground forces. GHOST demonstrates IAI's leading technology and know-how gathered through years of experience in unmanned aerial systems," said Itzhak Nissan, IAI's President and CEO.
The unique man-machine interface and operational concept is based on the principles of computer games and makes the system extremely intuitive to operate and requires little training. The entire system can be carried in backpacks by two soldiers and includes: two platforms, batteries, and a command-and-control unit with communications. GHOST is suitable for paramilitary and homeland security applications due to its simplicity and ease of operation.
"Because it is so quiet no one can even detect it's there. It's designed to be sent in with combat forces and a simple soldier can operate it. Its benefit is that it is quiet and stable," Arie Egozi, an aviation expert who writes for numerous defense industry publications, told The Media Line. (h/t Yoel) 
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| Today's variant of the If/Then Fallacy Posted: 14 Aug 2011 07:56 AM PDT Last year I wrote about the If/Then Fallacy, the idea that if Israel would do various actions towards peace then naturally the other side would be forced to act in a certain way. I found a 1988 example from Time magazine ( If Israel would put together a serious peace plan then no one could fault Israel if the Palestinian Arabs rejected it.) Since then we have seen it many other times: If Israel withdraws behind the Blue Line in Lebanon, then Hezbollah has no raison d'etre. If Israel withdraws from Gaza, then Gaza will cease to be a problem for Israel. And so on. Today, in Israel HaYom, Dan Margalit creates his own version: Should Israel give up its justified stance that it has the right to be recognized as a Jewish state? This would allow it to tear the mask from Abbas' face and prove that he is not interested in negotiations but only in a unilateral U.N. declaration. It would prove that he is disregarding both Barack Obama and the New York Times which both called on him to refrain from such a move.
In my opinion this is a worthwhile diplomatic gamble. Three years ago Dan Meridor gave Ha'aretz his Camp David journals for publication. They clearly prove that Yasser Arafat torpedoed the Israel-Palestinian agreement and not Ehud Barak. When the protocols of their meetings are made public, it will also emerge that it wasn't Ehud Olmert who subverted the agreement in 2009 but Abu Mazen. That is what will happen, to my sorrow and to the delight of the extreme right, if Netanyahu gives Abu Mazen a little more rope. The world will then see, for the third time in a dozen years, that the Palestinians' diplomatic behavior pattern hasn't changed. Even according to Margalit, the world has already seen that it was Arafat and Abbas who have torpedoed negotiations - and it has not negatively affected the Palestinian Arab political position one whit. If the world gave Arafat and Abbas a free pass after showing their dishonorable intentions twice, why would proving it a third time make any difference? The only thing that would be accomplished is that Israel would lose yet another of its negotiating positions, permanently. All to prove a point that would have zero effect on how the world views Israel or the duplicitous Palestinian Arab leadership. The if/then fallacy is based on the idea that the Palestinian Arabs really want peace - something that was proven false, decisively, with the second intifada as a response to a very serious peace offer (not to mention their refusal to negotiate after Israel's even more generous and foolhardy offer in 2008.) If the international community doesn't get that basic fact by now, it is not for lack of evidence - it is because the world chooses to ignore it. And no amount of Israeli genuflecting will change that. On the contrary - every time Israel even hints at such a compromise, it is viewed by others as evidence that even Israel doesn't believe in the justness of its own positions. 
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| Anti-Islamist rally in Tahrir Square fizzles Posted: 14 Aug 2011 06:35 AM PDT A week ago I noted that a coalition of Coptic Christians, Egyptian secularists and other Egyptian liberals planned to hold a massive rally in Tahrir Square on Friday, including the world's largest Iftar breakfast at sunset. This was in reaction to the huge Islamist rally the previous Friday in the square. The protest fizzled, badly: Protesters from various political groups gathered in Tahrir Square on Friday to break their Ramadan fast.
Several political groups and some Sufi orders decided to organize a Tahrir protest to emphasize their demand for a civil state after Islamists made a show of force in a 29 July protest, calling for an Islamic state.
But the run up to Friday's protest was mired in confusion as those who had organized the "For the Love of Egypt" protest disagreed on whether to hold it then or next Friday.
The head of the 6 April Youth Movement, Ahmed Maher, told Al-Masry Al-Youm that negotiations with the cabinet of Prime Minister Essam Sharaf were behind the confusion.
"The prime minister's office had given promises in exchange for delaying the march, and these were to release a statement supporting a civil state and endorsing the march the following week. They did neither, so we are here today," he said.
Some of the Sufi orders and Coptic Christian groups that had called for the protest also decided to go to the square on 12 August. This symbolizes why Egypt is in serious trouble. It isn't that nobody opposed the Islamists, but that the Islamists are far better organized than any other group. Political gains require organization, not just spontaneous passion that can evaporate as quickly as it appears. 
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| Syria updates, videos Posted: 14 Aug 2011 05:10 AM PDT From AP: Syrian gunboats firing heavy machine guns pounded impoverished districts of Latakia on Sunday, killing at least 10 people in a renewed assault on the Mediterranean coastal city, activists said.
As the gunships blasted waterfront districts, ground troops backed by tanks and security agents stormed several neighborhoods. The sharp crackle of machine-gun fire and loud explosions could be heard across the city.
"We are being targeted from the ground and the sea," said a resident of the al-Ramel district, which is also home to a Palestinian refugee camp. "The shooting is intense, many homes have been destroyed and the shabiha (thugs) have broken into shops and businesses."
He said at least three gunboats were taking part in the assault. A video of one of the warships here. This is in addition to the 3 killed in Latakia yesterday and 20 killed throughout Syria on Friday. Here is a video of a young man who walked into the Syrian Airlines offices in London and smashed the portrait of Bashar Assad: And here is a video, apparently from last week, that shows the minaret of a mosque in Deir al Zour toppling under Syrian fire: (h/t Fake) 
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| How Israel is out-classing the world in civil disobedience (TechCrunch) Posted: 14 Aug 2011 03:39 AM PDT From TechCrunch: In the four weeks since the social protests have begun in Israel, hundreds of have been killed, dozens of women have reportedly been raped, a number of children tortured, and countless districts have been looted. The authorities have imposed a complete lock-down on all cellular networks. All access to Facebook and Twitter has been blocked. Little information is going in, or out.
Except the absolute, complete opposite.
The social protests in Israel began 4 weeks ago with a national outcry over the rising price of basics such as cottage cheese. They then snowballed into a full-blown national movement by way of a simple act by a then unknown young woman. The act? Striking a tent in Tel-Aviv's Rothschild Boulevard in protest of high apartment rental costs.
A single tent became the heart and soul of the movement whose main gripe is that the middle-class is bearing the brunt of an imbalanced budgetary spend. "The People Demand Social Justice" is the key chant.
The protests are local, scattered all across Israel, drawing hundreds to hundreds of thousands. Big name musicians volunteer to headline these protests. Barricades and PA systems, all donated. People talk about the movement at every cafe, over every lunch, at every business meeting, at every family dinner.
it's been four weeks and zero acts of the barbaric, non-discriminatory violence we've seen across the middle east, and even in the UK. No shots fired. No stores looted. No form of communication has been shut down. In fact, not only have the Israeli police and army not taken any role other than safeguarding the protests themselves, they have even been applauded, literally, by hundreds of thousands for their efforts.
While in neighboring countries regimes are slaughtering the opposition, in Israel we have complete free speech to criticize our politicians and leaders. As I'm typing this, on the TV is Israel's version of SNL doing a parody skit of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's mishandling of the situation (they have him wearing a red t-shirt with Che Guevara on it). (h/t Menachem) 
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