יום חמישי, 23 ביוני 2011

Elder of Ziyon Daily Digest

Elder of Ziyon Daily Digest

Another reason the "demographic threat" is meaningless

Posted: 22 Jun 2011 08:53 PM PDT

Once again, a top US official has warned about the supposed demographic threat facing Israel:
Chief Middle East Adviser Dennis Ross said at the President's Conference in Jerusalem on Wednesday that the greatest risk at a time of sweeping change in the Middle East was to think that this was the time to sit still and "do nothing."

Ross said that while he understood the impulse to "stand pat" and avoid taking risks, certain realities – such as demographic trends that will present Israel with the dilemma of being either a Jewish or a democratic state – could not be "wished away."

Ross's comments seemed a gentle criticism of voices in the Israeli government saying that at a time when everything is changing in the Middle East, this is not the time for Israel to take far-reaching risks, not knowing what will be tomorrow in countries such as Syria, Egypt and even Jordan.

Obama, in his speech on the Middle East at the State Department last month, made a very similar statement.
The argument is not new; it has been around for a long time. Simply put, the "demographic threat" argument is that if Israel does not give the territories to the Palestinian Arabs, then Israel will be faced with a majority of the people living in the area of the Palestine Mandate being Arab in a few years.

Others, notably Yoram Ettinger, have spent a lot of time debunking the basic argument that demographics are so much in the Arabs' favor.

But there is another more subtle issue with the "demographic threat" argument. It is based on a very flawed assumption. The people who make this argument may not entirely realize the logical flaws in their assertions.

Their assumption is that a Palestinian Arab state must be based on the 1949 armistice lines.

However, even if a much smaller Palestinian Arab state is created, one that takes into account Israel's security requirements, then the demographic issue disappears as well.

Over 95% (perhaps as many as 98.5%) of Palestinian Arabs in the West Bank live in Areas A or B.

If there is going to be a Palestinian Arab state, it will include all of Areas A and B.

In other words, over 95% of the Palestinian Arabs in Judea and Samaria already live in areas that would become part of a Palestinian Arab state under any Israeli peace offer, right or left wing.

To put it bluntly: if Mahmoud Abbas declared a Palestinian Arab state in Areas A and B (and Gaza) today, even though they take up less than half of the West Bank, the demographic issue disappears.

So the "demographic threat" is a fantasy. If the Palestinian Arabs would accept any of Israel's peace offers, their state - no matter what size - would eliminate this threat.

The viewpoint that Israeli intransigence is creating a demographic threat is exactly backwards. It is Palestinian Arab refusal to compromise with Israel - and bring freedom to their people - that is artificially creating and aggravating this issue.

In fact, this threat is part of a Palestinian Arab strategy to pressure Israel to make concessions, because Palestinian Arabs have insisted on an "all or nothing" approach to peace with Israel. The slightest compromise on their part would create a Palestinian Arab state that would take away this so-called threat completely.


The world has swallowed this "all or nothing" thinking, believing that Palestinian Arab insistence on its maximal demands cannot be modified. So the world tends to conflate the "demographic threat" with "1967 lines."

If President Obama and Dennis Ross and J-Street and Americans for Peace Now and Walt and Mearsheimer and Thomas Friedman and Roger Cohen and Jeffrey Goldberg and a host of other pundits and politicians are so concerned over this supposed threat, the only logical thing for them to do is to pressure the Palestinian Arabs to accept a compromise that would give them a state as soon as possible, and to dismiss their maximal demands that they have made since Oslo. It is PalArab stubbornness that has kept this threat in the forefront of the conversation. Even the smallest state would ensure that this threat disappears.

Because the demographic threat is not a result of Israeli intransigence - it is directly because of the Palestinian Arab refusal to compromise.

Links!

Posted: 22 Jun 2011 12:38 PM PDT

Flotilla commentary:

Major news media to be on flotilla - at Commentary and YNet

Gaza boat sails into fantasy world of desirable despots at National Post

Flotilla should go to Syria, not Gaza at the Irish Examiner

Flotilla fools are scamming you, from Sydney Morning Herald

A site where you can volunteer to help combat news bias when the flotilla finally sails from 5 Minutes for Israel

And in other news:

Burqa battle in Australia - Herald Sun and Fox

Greek anti-semitism

More on Interpal at Harry's Place

And here's one of those British Palestinian Arab moderates we hear so much about.

BBC's Big Question asks the wrong question at Raymond Cook

The story of a happily married couple who were on the Kindertransport

And a nice cartoon from Hezbollah:


(h/t jzaik, Israel Muse, Ian, T34, sshender, Challah Hu Akbar)

Bil'in wall being moved - plus an outrageous phrase at CNN

Posted: 22 Jun 2011 10:45 AM PDT

From CNN:
Four years after an Israeli high court initially ruled that the path of the barrier separating Israelis from Palestinians around the West Bank village of Bilin needed to be rerouted, the Israeli military Wednesday began to dismantle parts of the controversial fence.

Peter Lerner, a spokesman for the Israeli central command, told CNN that "We are in advance preparations for removing the old fence so there (are) some elements that are being removed." He acknowledged that the action was being taken in adherence to a subsequent 2008 Israeli court ruling which found sections of the fence had been built illegally on Palestinian land.

"We are implementing the court ruling to the letter," he said. "We negotiated with those that appealed to the high court and sat down with them and basically drew out the new contours for the security fence."

The barrier in Bilin has become the focus of a weekly protest that has been going on for over six years, pitting Palestinians and international activists against Israeli soldiers. Hundreds have been injured in the protests and a number of demonstrators have been killed.
So will the weekly Bil'in protests end when the wall is rebuilt, since they accomplished their putative goal?

Only if you believe that their goal is really to protest the fence, and not to protest Israel's very existence. And if you do believe that, prepare to be disappointed.
CNN ends the story with this sickening paragraph:
Many Palestinians refer to the barrier as the "apartheid wall" and view it as nothing more than a land grab by Israel to help support and expand settlements in the West Bank. The Israeli government chooses to refer to it as the "security fence," necessary to protect its citizens from what it views as terrorist attacks.
"What it views as terrorist attacks"? CNN was already making clear that it was writing that sentence from the point of view of Israel, so that extra Reuters-style disclaimer to imply that people blowing themselves up in restaurants might not really be terrorism is beyond disgusting.

Note also that there are plenty of Jewish communities, with tens of thousands of people, beyond the fence. How exactly does the fence help "support and expand" those settlements?

(h/t Yasher-El)

A peek into the Bizarro world of Hezbollah

Posted: 22 Jun 2011 09:48 AM PDT

Here is most of a fairly typical article in Al Manar (Hezbollah/Lebanon) that highlights the difference between the worldviews of Hezbollah, and those of normal people:

Member of the Baath parliamentary bloc in Lebanon MP Assem Qanso said that the conspiracy against Syria has failed in achieving its goals. He expressed belief that the campaign against Syria was not new, and put it in the framework of the economic, military and political blockade on the resistance path against the American-Zionist scheme.

The Lebanese lawmaker told Al-Manar Website that the recent developments in Syria come in the framework of the international political, economic and military blockade against the resistant country. He explained that Syria, like Iran as well as the Resistance in Lebanon and Palestine, was targeted by the so-called international community because it belongs to the resistant anti-American and Zionist scheme path. He admitted that the latest battle was the strongest, but kept it in the same context of the American-Zionist scheme.

Qanso said that the immunity of the national and Arab Syrian people was enough to put an end to the crisis. In this context, he also pointed out Syria's history with Arabism since the days of Sultan Basha Atrash. "The Syrians are the most immune people at the patriotic level," he said.

While noting that Americans and Europeans failed in breaking the patriotism of the Syrian people, Qanso noted that "unlike the case in Yemen, Libya and other places, they also failed to break the Syrian ideological army." He emphasized that "the Syrian army remained united and faced, with full determination, the Salafist groups that were militarily and financially supported by Lebanon, Turkey and Iran."

The Baath Party MP expressed belief that the conspiracy has failed in achieving its goals, adding that the crisis was reaching its end. Meanwhile, he praised the Russian and Chinese role that prevented the United Nations from imposing sanctions against Syria through the Security Council (UNSC). Qanso said that "this great stance consolidated Syria's national stance and thwarted all attempts to overthrow its resistant regime."

Answering a question, Qanso said that "all the symbols of resistance against the American-Zionist plot will be targeted by the so-called international community that will always attempt to break their steadfastness. He expressed belief that these attempts would have no limits at all, but added that the Resistance has proven that it was able to change the balances everywhere.

Asked whether the conspiracy against Syria has ended, Qanso said: "It was a difficult experience, but we're the victorious ones, God willing, thanks to our resistance and steadfastness."

Turning to the local developments, Qanso was asked whether he would give the government a vote of no-confidence at the parliament as he was quoted as saying last week. He said that he would follow the recommendations of Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah. "Everything will proceed according to the recommendations of Sayyed Nasrallah," he explained. "We will remain behind Sayyed Hasan until death," he pointed out.

Qanso also said that the new majority would overcome all the difficulties and challenges. "We will also triumph the US and Israeli agents in Lebanon, i.e. the March 14 forces," he added. He said that he would not give these forces any value or consideration from now on.

Qanso warned against some groups seeking sabotage in the country, in reference to Hizb Ut-Tahrir which is holding anti-Syria demonstrations in the north. "Those people have been prepared since a while for such incidents. They are worse than Takfiris and Salafis," he said. "They are extremists. I know them since 1956. They have links with the English intelligence and work for the Americans."
So now we know that Syrian protesters are Zionist and American stooges, and that the Lebanese March 14th opposition is filled with Zionist and American stooges and spies.

More interestingly, the socialist Baath party in Lebanon has been magically transformed into a Shiite group that slavishly follows whatever Nasrallah says.

Iranian nuclear bomb letter was a hoax (updated)

Posted: 22 Jun 2011 08:37 AM PDT

I had quoted MEMRI last week about an article at an Iranian Revolutionary Guards website that seemed to say that Iran was actively working on nuclear weapons.

Now there are reports that it was a hoax.

From YNet:
An Iranian blogger revealed on Tuesday that the controversial article published on a Revolutionary Guard website in April, describing a hypothetical nuclear experiment by the Islamic Republic, was nothing but a figment of his imagination.

The essay caused an international stir as it was not inline with the official Iranian claim that its nuclear program is being developed for civilian purposes only.

Seyed Ali Pourtabatbaiee, a 30-year-old journalist from the central Iranian city of Qom, first published his essay on his blog, Kheyzaranonline, which is dedicated to Shiite messianism.

"I wrote that blog out of anger that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon," Pourtabatbaiee said in an interview with British newspaper The Guardian. "I think sanctions will just continue until the end of days, and they make us so angry.

"We don't need nuclear weapons otherwise, but if we are going to have these sanctions, we should do a nuclear test to bring them to an end," he added.

Pourtabatbaiee said that his article was arbitrarily linked to Gerdab, a site run by the Revolutionary Guard's cyber security wing and often features links "to what it thinks is good content."

"There was a university student I know working for Gerdab and he read my blog and liked it and put in a link to it," he explained. "He has to put up five links a day to get paid in his job. I don't think Gerdab management knew anything about it."
I remember that I could not find the original article in Gerdab, but I got my information from MEMRI.

So was the article on the Gerdab site, or just a link to it?

I emailed MEMRI, hopefully will get a clarification soon. It would be most disappointing if MEMRI did not translate the article directly from the website.

Incidentally, this brings up my only complaint about MEMRI, which is a fantastic organization and provides invaluable services. Why don't they publish the actual links to the original web articles they translate?

UPDATE: Challah Hu Akbar did have a link to the original on Gerdab. I cannot find any indication that the article is linked to from somewhere else. But if I am reading the Persian date correctly, it does appear that the blog post was a day earlier than the Gerdab post.

Here's the blogger's explanation of what happened in english.

"Failed State Index" - pseudo-science?

Posted: 22 Jun 2011 07:30 AM PDT

Foreign Policy and The Fund for Peace have come out with their Failed State Index 2011.

According to their criteria, Israel is a "borderline" state, ranked 53rd worst, slightly better than Egypt and worse than Zambia.

The question is: what are their criteria?

They seem to include the West Bank with Israel, but it is unclear if they include Gaza.

Given that, here are their stated criteria:
Demographic Pressures, Refugees/IDPs, Group Grievance, Human Flight, Uneven Development, Economic Decline, Delegitimization of the State, Public Services, Human Rights, Security Apparatus, Factionalized Elites, and External Intervention
And how do they score each of these criteria?
Full-text data are electronically gathered from a range of publicly available print, radio, television and Internet sources from all over the world, including international and local media reports, essays, interviews, polling and survey data, government documents, independent studies from think tanks, NGOs and universities, and even corporate financial filings. The software determines the salience of the 12 indicators as well as hundreds of sub-indicators by calculating the number of "hits" as a proportion of the sample for a given time period. Quantitative data is also included, when available. Subject-matter experts then review each score for every country and indicator, as well as consult the original documents, when necessary, to ensure accuracy.

...The raw data are from millions of news articles and reports. As a practical matter, it is not readily transferable without the methodology and the software.
Essentially there is a black box where data from the media, interviews, essays, NGOs and so forth are magically converted into numbers. But exactly how this is done, so others can critique the methods, is hidden. And then they have "experts" ready to massage the numbers if they seem out of whack!

To even call this a "methodology" seems a stretch. I could do just as well by Googling country names and keywords, graphing how often the pairs are found in web searches, and then modifying the results to make sure that they don't look too outrageous.

Does the index consider the UNRWA definition of "refugee" to be operative when it applies to no other region? How exactly does a news report get converted into data - is it number of stories? Which NGOs are considered reliable and which are not?

Moreover, including the territories with Israel here means that they are combining data from two (or three) governments, each with different agendas and priorities. But guess how the results will be reported? No question, it will be looked upon as if Israel is responsible for the government of the PA and Hamas.

Science, by definition, must allow independent researchers to reproduce the results. By putting a numeric ranking next to each country, this index fools the casual reader into believing that these are all measured objectively. It takes some digging to find out that it is literally impossible for this index to be objective. Other people looking at the identical data could easily come up with different conclusions.

Which is what makes these exercises into quantifying the world's problems often worse than useless.
(h/t Ron)

A fake "even-handed" tour of Israel

Posted: 22 Jun 2011 06:46 AM PDT

From the anti-Zionist 972 magazine:

Six months ago, nineteen Jews broke the usual partisan norms when it comes to visiting the "Holy Land" by choosing to hear not only the Israeli Zionist narrative—with which most of them are already familiar—but also pushing themselves to learn and experience the Palestinian narrative on their synagogue's trip to Israel and the Palestinian territories. They chose to shatter the classical stereotype of tourists who come to Israel to experience the luxurious hotels and touchstone religious sites but that prevent them from experiencing the "other" important local culture.

Tourism packages excel in keeping tourists in a bubble. The guests visit restaurants, hotels, and venues that are designed to give them the illusion of having a local experience, without having to step outside their comfort zone. Tourism in Israel and Palestine is largely dependent on "religious" pilgrimage trips where tourists are rushed from one archeological site to another without fulfilling the spiritual aspect of the trip they had aspired to experience.

This kind of tourism doesn't characterize all visitors to the Holy Land, however, because there is emerging lately an alternative kind of tourism. There are people who have interests that go beyond the usual religious sites. They understand religious pilgrimage to mean creating a connection with the land, the people and the culture. Such special people choose to come for an educational and practical experience. This not to say they avoid typical sites, nor do they fail to indulge in relaxing and luxurious experiences, but they refuse to ignore the full potential of a Holy Land trip.

In December of 2010, I had the privilege of coordinating a tour for the nineteen Jews from Chicago led by their rabbi. Contrary to normal tours, ours was led equally by two tour guides for the entire trip, a Palestinian and an Israeli. The purpose was to provide the tourists with a context of the Israel/Palestine conflict and allow them to learn the different narratives that exist in the region. They visited many religious sites in Jerusalem, Hebron and Bethlehem. Everywhere they visited, locals welcomed them and spoke to them about a vast variety of issues. They learned about the life, challenges and aspirations of both the people of Palestine and of Israel.
While the article did not mention the rabbi's name or the group he is a part of, luckily he commented so we can see exactly how even-handed this tour was.

The rabbi who led the trip is a Reconstructionist rabbi named Brant Rosen. He blogged the entire trip, so we could see exactly how much the of itinerary was dedicated to the "Zionist narrative."

It turns out...essentially none.

The Israeli tour guide is supposedly a former Kach member and settler who turned into a "peace activist" and co-founded Breaking the Silence. And the Palestinian Arab guide, who authored the +972 article, isn't any more Zionist than the Israeli!

On the first day, they visited Jewish, christian and Muslim holy sites in Jerusalem, and then met with the Imam of Al Aqsa - and, for balance, a member of "Rabbis for Human Rights."

This was the theme of the entire tour: meeting with Palestinian Arabs, sleeping in their homes, and then with extreme israeli leftists who agree with the Palestinian Arab narrative in toto.

Not a single visit with a religious Jew. Not a single talk with a Jewish resident of the areas they visited in Judea and Samaria. No visits with government spokespeople, or IDF representatives, or anyone who could remotely be associated with the Israeli center or right. No talks with victims of Arab terror. No visit to Sderot or any scenes of intifada bombings.

Even worse, Rabbi Brand makes no secret of his own skewed feelings. Look how he describes his visit with a leading Christian anti-Zionist:

Our Wednesday began with a visit with Reverend Naim Ateek (above), founder and head of Sabeel, a well-known institute that advocates Palestinian Chrisitian Liberation Theology. As readers of my blog might know, I've long been an admirer of Reverend Ateek's theological writings. In particular, his work has informed and challenged my own thinking about the Jewish conception of the land and the dangers inherent in wedding religion to power. It was a great pleasure to finally meet Reverend Ateek personally and to introduce him to members of my congregation.

To my dismay, Ateek has been unfairly and relentlessly attacked by the American Jewish establishment – largely, I believe, because he does not shrink from illuminating the problems that come with the land-centric nature of Zionist ideology. For myself, I've learned much from Ateek's suggestion that Zionism represents a kind of "Constantinian Judaism" – i.e., a fusing of Judaism with Empire.
So this tour was led by a non-religious rabbi who believes that Zionism is inherently a form of colonialism. And who seems to admire the theological writings of a Christian anti-Zionist more than any Jewish theologian.

And now Palestinian Arabs, represented by the author of the +972 article, are bragging how open-minded they are in allowing nominally Jewish anti-Zionist Jews to enter their homes to be fed propaganda.

It is worthwhile to mention that the self-congratulatory Palestinian Arab author of the article doesn't seem to find the Jews he led around human enough to mention their names, or even the name of the group they were with. But he "loves" them - because they are exactly the types of useful idiots that Palestinian Arabs rely on to push their fake narrative.

It is ironic that the Palestinian Arab who is so upset that Jewish tours of the Holy Land are in a "bubble" led the exact same type of tour - and has the audacity to pretend that it presented both sides of the story.

Even the many skewed political brainwashing tours of Israel pretend to be even handed by giving an hour or so to a "settler" after a week of propaganda. Rabbi Rosen didn't even do that.

Auto-translation of the day

Posted: 22 Jun 2011 05:36 AM PDT

A 25-year old member of Hamas' terrorist Qassam Brigades died today, supposedly of a heart attack.

The auto-translation of his eulogy at the al-Qassam website says:
"...with all the verses of faith in God and worth, and dignity of believers trusting in Allah's victory and his private parts...."
They must be huge!

Split in the Muslim Brotherhood?

Posted: 22 Jun 2011 04:42 AM PDT

From Al Masry al-Youm:

A group of young Muslim Brotherhood members announced the formation of their own political party on Tuesday, separate from the Brotherhood's recently created Freedom and Justice Party, in a defiant act that is expected to deepen the generational rift within the 83-year-old organization.

The party "stresses the main Egyptian current that the great majority of Egyptians belong to. The party is distinguished by its civil and democratic nature. It takes pride in its idenity. It is open to the other. Morals, values and religious principles play a role in regulating its perfomance," read a statement posted by one of the founders on Facebook.

Unlike most other Islamist parties, the manifesto of Hizb Al-Tayyar Al-Masry (meaning Egyptian Current Party) does not mention Islamic sharia as its frame of reference; it only refers to the Arab Islamic civilization. "We cannot refer to the Islamic sharia because this is not an Islamist party, and it is not a party for the Muslim Brotherhood youth," said Mohamed Shams, a 24-year-old co-founder of the party. "Not all founders belong to the Muslim Brotherhood."

The statement also envisions a larger role for young people. "We want the party to express the spirit of the revolution, which means we want most of its leaders to be young," said Mohamed Affan, a 30-year-old brother and a co-founder of the party.

Affan is one of many young Muslim Brothers who have become outspoken recently in their criticism of the group's leadership. They have, on several occasions, expressed disenchantment with their generation's marginalization inside the Brotherhood's highest power structures.

They have also expressed vehement opposition to the group's official party, arguing that it failed to ensure a full separation between the Muslim Brotherhood's proselytizing and political activities.
It is not clear that this new party has any real political power, but it does highlight rifts within the MB.

The entire article is worth reading.

Latest "unity" news

Posted: 22 Jun 2011 03:15 AM PDT

Salam Fayyad did not announce that he would refuse the position of prime minister as some Arabic media sources had claimed. Instead, he just said "I shall support to the best of my abilities any candidate Palestinian parties agree upon." Not quite the same thing.

Meanwhile, even though the planned meeting between Abbas and Meshal in Cairo was canceled, they might be meeting "secretly" in Turkey. Abbas was already in Ankara and Meshal just made a "surprise" visit to Istanbul.

Meanwhile, the argument between Hamas and Fatah over whether Abbas can appoint a PM continues, as a Popular Struggle Front spokesman who was in Cairo stated that part of the original "unity" agreement indeed gave Abbas that power.

Congrats to Israel Muse, Pro-Israel Blog-Off winner!

Posted: 22 Jun 2011 02:12 AM PDT

The Pro-Israel Blog-Off is over, and (after waiting a couple of nail-biting days for the judges' scores) Israel Muse is the winner, beating EoZ in the final round.

Congratulations to Israel Muse for a job well done!

Thanks so much to Israellycool for hosting the contest, as well as to Honest Reporting for sponsoring it. Thanks also to the judges who spent hours in their decisions.

It was a fun contest and I hope that it made many people more aware of the many excellent pro-Israel blogs out there.

Of course, I also must thank those who voted for me and supported me throughout the Blog-Off!
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